Karaganov: Three World Orders are Crumbling. What future for mankind? | #russia

A short reflection about Prof. Sergej Karaganov’s Essay “The Future World Order” By Elisabeth Hellenbroich On September 7 a short essay, written by influential Russian strategist Professor Sergej Karaganov (Dean of the Faculty of Economics and International Affairs at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics and leading member of the Valdai Discussion Club), was published in the Magazine “Rossiiskaya Gazeta”. The essay is entitled “The Future World Order”. It is a critical examination concerning the “premises” of the present global world order. His main thesis: “The World is living through an exciting and frightening period when three world orders are tumbling down at the same time”. The only way to find a way out of a foreseeable longer period of strategic insecurity, is to think about what a new “future world order” could look like fifteen years from now. The essay is in line with the dominant thinking of the Kremlin, according to one German Russia observer. Karaganov will be a prominent speaker at the panel “The Conflict between Differing Geopolitical Worldviews” at this year’s 14^th annual Valdai-Discussion Club conference (Oct 16-19 in Sochi), which is entitled “Creative Destruction: Will a new Order emerge from the crisis and conflicts?” Reviewing the last 70 years  Karaganov identifies two world orders that emerged after the end of World War II: a “liberal- democratic and capitalist order led by the US” and a “socialist order led by the Soviet Union.” After the disintegration of the SU a “global liberal order” was proclaimed which was maintained for a short while. For Karaganov this global liberal order was only “a brief period of U.S. and Western hegemony in the world”, in which the West “assumed the right to speak on behalf of the international community. By referring to the various strategic crises of the 1990ies, Karaganov describes this new order rather as “the law of the jungle in its worst form” in which “international law and norms of interstate relations were viciously trampled upon.” (…) “In 1991, Germany and then the European Union as a whole recognized the independence of Croatia and Slovenia which had broken away from Yugoslavia. Such unilateral recognition was completely against international law and became one of the factors that triggered the civil war in Yugoslavia. In 1999, NATO bombed defenseless remains of the country for 78 days. The West then recognized the independence of Kosovo, which had been torn away from the country and where no one bothered even to hold a referendum on separation. In 2003, most NATO countries invaded Iraq under false pretext, killing hundreds of thousands of people and ultimately destabilizing the entire region for decades. In 2009, the aggression against Libya plunged it into chaos which it has been unsuccessfully trying to overcome ever since. All this was accompanied and followed by numerous escapades to support and provoke ‘color revolutions’, most of which caused turmoil and suffering among people. Ukraine is the latest example: Europe tried to cement the ‘liberal order’ through constant enlargement of Western alliances, especially NATO, which could inevitably have led to a big war on the continent, as many had repeatedly warned , if it had continued a bit longer into the territories which Russia considered vitally important for the security and survival.” With the Ukraine crisis a “qualitative” shift occurred both in Russia and the West. As Karaganov comments: “The West did not dare to go further, as it quickly realized that Russia was now able to ‘dominate the escalation’ and it would inevitably lose if Russia started raising the stakes… But the West’s attempt to establish its hegemony were doomed without any steps on the part of Russia which had stopped the expansion of Western alliances in Ukraine and a series of “color” regime changes in Syria. Its actions only highlighted (which made them especially frustrating) the “loss of dominant positions in the world political and economic system the West had held for the last five hundred years.” It is noteworthy that Karaganov leaves out the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, which was perceived by the West as a break of International Law. His only commentary is that Russia had “a hand in ruining the global liberal order with its independent policy and actions in Ukraine and Syria”, and that it was “doing the right thing.” Three reasons why the liberal global order is crumbling Following Karaganov’s reasoning there are historically essentially three reasons why the so called “liberal global order” which the West imposed after the dissolution of SU, was short- lived and led to its crumbling.

1. The history of Europe and the West was according to Karaganov mainly based on its “military superiority” which was achieved around the sixteenth century, when Europe started global colonial and neocolonial expansion, imposing Christianity and their policy rule and trade along the way. They however became the main beneficiaries of their free trade, as the “opening up” of China, at gunpoint, to opium trade from the British Raij” demonstrated. In exchange for opium the Europeans received silk, porcelain ware and other goods. Millions of Chinese subsequently died from opium.

2. When England lost its leadership to the United States, the US led the way in advancing “free trade” based on its own rules, using not only its economic power but also military supremacy in the non- socialist world. When the Soviet Union came to an end it seemed that the liberal economic order would spread to the rest of the world ushering in a splendid end of history for the West. The main reason why this illusion collapsed, Karganov underlines, is that the “hitherto hidden tendency came to the surface- the foundation upon which the “global liberal economic order – military supremacy- began to crumble.”

3. “Mutual nuclear deterrence between Russia and the United States and now with China, India, Pakistan, Israel, France and Great Britain, coupled with other factors, makes big wars almost impossible as they threaten to obliterate mankind as such. It also precludes wars against leaders of the new world – former colonies or semi –colonies- with not only their own nuclear arsenals but also a major nuclear and military power, Russia standing visibly behind them and quite palpably behind China.”

Wiesbaden October 2017