On 27th of March an interesting discussion took place in the Al-Arabya TV between two well- known geopolitical experts, the American historian Prof. John Mearsheimer and Russia strategic expert on nuclear weapons, Prof. Sergey Karaganov. The content of the fascinating discussion indirectly reflects the discussions that during the last weeks took place in Riyadh between the US and Russian representatives, as well as in Jedda between US and Ukraine. Trumps agreement with the Ukraine for a 30-day ceasefire, according to well informed observers, was too hasty, given that it had not been discussed previously with Russia. The same goes for the Black Sea agreement that from Russia’s side was based on the condition of loosening the Russia sanctions. Trump’s hasty and erratic behavior plays into the hands of some people in the American Elite who do everything to resist Trumps peace efforts while at the same time they encourage Ukraine and Europe to sabotage Trump’ peace efforts. The key drivers in Europe are the former colonial powers Great Britain and France who with their “coalition of the willing” announced the plan to send so called “peace keeping troops” to Ukraine, that is not accepted by Russia and would just prolong the Ukraine war. What stands behind the idea of Europe’s peace keeping force is a lot of despair and empty talk. In reality, according to German General (ret.) Kujat (March 27, Malchow speech) Europe “stands in front of the shambles of its failed policy.”
Prof. Mearsheimer and Prof. Karaganov on Trump’s peace initiative
It is noteworthy to look at the recent debate that was aired by Al Arabya TV (27th march, moderated by M. Nucifero) between John Mearsheimer and Sergey Karaganov. Both experts gave a sober assessment concerning the recent start of a peace dialogue between Russia and the USA as well as between US and Ukraine. Both qualified the rapprochement between US and Russia as a “remarkable shift”- a “historical moment.” While Mearsheimer underlined that “Trump has totally abandoned Joe Bidens policy on Russia and aims at improving the relations between Russia and US. Trump and the West more generally have understood that they have lost the war and have to see what Russia victory will look like. The ‘deal’ which Trump thinks about, is making Russia happy, but not Europe.” Karaganov noted from his side: “Trump is cutting losses. I agree with Mearsheimer, but Biden even before started to withdraw, when they understood that they wouldn’t get victory and end up in a fiasco and even a nuclear war.” He further pointed out that “Trump is up to strong opposition within the American Elite. But he has to withdraw from the war which Russia is winning.”
Mearsheimer made two caveats: 1. There is a “huge Russophobia in the West, that we must overcome.” 2nd “I don’t think Russia can trust the West since the end of the Cold War. Then the West was dishonest and the end result is that Putin doesn’t trust the West.” He remarked that during “our unipolar moment we pushed through a liberal policy on a global scale”. The US became a “crusader state” spreading liberalism. “It led to disaster and Great Power politics are back on the table.”
Karaganov when being asked, what Russia wants as a victory, answered in a very harsh way, by emphasizing that there is need to crush European illusions: The European are “desperate and insane, they are a real threat,” he said. “We certainly don’t want all of Ukraine back. But we should be connected to the Russian speaking regions. The problem is that the European elites are desperate and drive their countries towards a big war, worse than in the period 1914-18 and in the period prior to World War II. The anti- Russia hysteria is worse today!” Mearsheimer emphasized from his side that while the US had been present as “pacifier” in terms of Nato, there is no question that “the US presence will decrease. Trump turns the responsibility over to Europe. And I think that NATO is in big trouble and it is no more effective. Europe is fighting among each other and I don’t think that Russia threatens to overrun Ukraine and Europe.” According to Karaganov “the West turned into ‘strategic idiocy’ because they don’t fear any more nuclear war. The American partners don’t understand the European partners who are insane. I hope, they understand that we look into the abyss.” In terms of Russia’s war aims, which Mearsheimer wanted to know from Karaganov, the latter underlined that “Russia looks at the four oblasts that it annexed and Crimea as a minimum.” The other aspect is the creation of a huge “demilitarized zone. I think that it will take time before we finish the war, because Europe will try to ignite it.” Both experts agreed that we may see a longer period of “instability” around the globe, before a new strategic balance would emerge.
President Putin addressing the “Arctic Forum”
In order to get a better grasp of what is at stake in terms of future US/ Russia relations, despite all it’s potential ups and downs, we should look at the 6th International Arctic Forum: “The Arctic: Territory of Dialogue” that took place March 26-27 in Murmansk, particularly at President Putins address to the plenary session.
He stated at the beginning that Russia being “the largest Arctic power”, is prepared for cooperation in the region, encompassing scientific research, biodiversity protection, climate issues, emergencies response and of course, the economic and industrial developments of the Arctic.” “Russia is prepared to work with all the Arctic states,” the president said. “Regrettably the geopolitical competition and fighting for positions in this region are also growing. While the Arctic zone accounts for over a quarter of the Russian Federation’s territory, nearly two and a half million of our citizens live and work here. In terms of the cargo traffic along the Northern Sea- Route, spanning from the Kara Gates Strait to the Bering Strait,” Putin emphasized that over the past decade this cargo traffic has “increased from 4 mio tons in 2014 to nearly 38 mio tons in 2024.(..) We anticipate with confidence that volumes will reach 70-100 mio tons by 2030.”
Putin spoke about Russia’s plans to expand the Arctic fleet
“The Northern Sea Route is poised to become a pivotal segment of the transarctic transport corridor, stretching from St Petersburg through Murmansk to Vladivostok. The corridor is designed to connect global industrial, agricultural and energy hubs with consumer markets via a shorter, safer and more economically viable route. This also includes linking the Trans Arctic Corridor “with our domestic Rail network from the northwest to Russia’s Far East reaching all the way to the Baikal Amur Mainline and the Trans- Siberian Railway.” According to Putin “currently deposits of oil and gas, metals and other minerals are being developed in the Russia Arctic and there is the task to launch enterprises of deep processing of raw materials in the Arctic regions using a powerful resource base there; to create high value added production facilities in petrochemistry; natural gas conversion, rare earth metals and other industries related to machine building, production of sophisticated machinery and industrial equipment, while preserving the unique nature of the Arctic.” He also talked about the need for more airports and better housing conditions as well as constructing cities, hospitals and schools. Efforts to explore the North, as Putin underlined, “all these objectives have inspired many generations of our ancestors, including medieval sailors and Novgorod merchants, those who pioneered Arctic exploration in the 16th and 17th centuries, industrial leaders of the 18th and 19th centuries, researchers, polar explorers, engineers, Soviet workers and companies in present day Russia, which launched major Arctic projects in the early 2000.”
Putin’s visit to the Arkhangelsk nuclear powered Cruiser Submarine
The president also made a visit to the Arkhangelsk nuclear powered cruiser submarine -the latest fourth generation, multipurpose nuclear- powered submarine, capable of carrying any sea -launched missiles and effectively hitting targets both at sea and on land. This visit and what the president said to the Navy crew was a symbolic message to the world.
Being asked by Lieutenant Commander Mikhail Lakomkin, to comment on the future prospects and plans for development of the Russian Navy, Putin stressed that “the Navy is one of the main guarantees of Russia’s state security and global stability, because there is a certain strategic balance between Russia and the United States and we will treat that balance with utmost care. “He recalled that Russians tradition in shipbuilding and the Navy began under Peter the Great and that a strategy for the development of the Navy is currently being drafted, along with the program for the construction of surface ships and submarines until 2050.
Another Commander, Anton Frolov, asked the President to present his assessment of the latest developments and how the special military operation has been unfolding. Putin developed at length how the conflict began: “All started in the wake of the 2014 coup d’etat in Ukraine. Western countries supported this, and this was how hostilities broke out in southeastern Ukraine.” He stressed that Russia for 8 years had tried to resolve these issues by peaceful means: “Taking Crimea and its people, as well as the people of Sevastopol under our wing was something we had to do. (…) It turned out that both the Ukrainian authorities and their Western curators were unfortunately misleading us and trying to trick us.” (A particular reference to former French President F. Hollande and German Chancellor A. Merkel, who had stated openly that they needed these Minsk agreements, merely to deliver more weapons to the Ukrainian regime and prepare for a military confrontation with Russia.) “During these eight years, the people in Donbass, Lugansk and Donetsk faced outright genocide. (…) When the armed conflict escalated into open confrontation in 2022 “we were still offering to settle all the outstanding issues by peaceful means. We reached an agreement with Ukraine during our talks in Istanbul… They (Ukraine) initialled and signed this document which means that it was acceptable to them. After that the European curators arrived, including former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who convinced the Ukrainian leadership to keep fighting until there are virtually no Ukrainians left and to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia.”
The president emphasized that at present “our troops have the strategic initiative along the entire contact line. (…) As regards the situation along the line of contact, let me reiterate: across the entire frontline, the strategic initiative lies unequivocally with the Russian Armed Forces. The Lugansk People’s Republic has been 99% liberated, while the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions stand at over 70%. Our forces, our troops are advancing daily, liberating territory after territory, area after area.”
Concerning his assessment about the ongoing negotiations between USA and Russia, Putin replied that “the president of the United States sincerely wishes to end this conflict ….In my opinion his aspiration is genuine (…) We advocate resolving these issues through peaceful means, but with the elimination of the root causes that have led to the current situation. (…) We must undoubtedly ensure Russia’s security from the long term, historical perspective. Any step taken to achieve this into this objective will be welcomed by us and we will work with any partners who strive towards this goal. This not only includes the United States but also others, such as the People’s Republic of China, India, Brazil, South Africa, all BRICS nations and many others, such as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea with which we have signed a treaty.(!)” Russia would be also prepared to work with Europe as well, despite their inconsistent behavior. He then talked about his major concern in respect to Ukraine: “The Ultranationalists have had considerable influence in Ukraine from the start, in fact since the collapse of the Soviet Union. These people hold openly neo-Nazi views and they even use the term in Ukraine so we were not the ones who invented it.” He mentioned something which is unknown in Europe so far: “In 2017 the US Congress added a provision to the government’s spending bill that prohibited financing or having any relations with a unity like “Azov militia” unit. An American law maker directly described that paramilitary group as terrorist and anti- Semitic. Although the amendment was not supported by the Senate at that time, in a year or two, its sponsors including the oldest member of the US Congress, supported that legislation and it was adopted by Congress. The US Congress recognized Azov as a terrorist, anti- Semitic, and neo- Nazi organization. (…) However, in 2022 the State Department decided that US military aid could go to that controversial unit because it had been integrated into the Armed Forces of Ukraine (…) Under these circumstances of de facto illegitimacy, neo- Nazi formations receive additional weapons and recruit new personnel. What could it lead to? It results in de facto power being in their hands.”
Given the fact that these neo- nazi militants are beginning to run the country today, the question according to Putin is, the illegitimacy of the President of Ukraine and how it would be possible to conduct negotiations with them. Within the framework of the “United Nations peacekeeping operation”, the president reflected that in principle it would be indeed possible to discuss under UN auspices with the United States and even European countries and certainly with all our partners and allies, the “possibility of establishing a temporary administration In Ukraine.” The aim being democratic elections and bringing to power a competent government that enjoys public trust. For Putin its “just one option … but this remains a viable option.”
In these days, there is another round of negotiations taking place between Kirill Dimitriev, chairman of the “Russia Direct Investment Fund” who had also been present at negotiations in Rijad and Trumps special Russia envoy Vitkoff in Washington, who 3 weeks ago has held two extensive discussions with President Putin. It would be a fatal mistake, as both Karaganov and Mearsheimer correctly observed, if US President Trump under war pressure from Europe and a failed Ukraine, would become impatient and that way get rid of all his peace options.
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