Elisabeth Hellenbroich
As of this writing, the 75th anniversary celebration of NATO in Washington (July 9-12th), having been planned to affirm NATO’s superiority over Russia, has turned out to be filled with self- delusionary speeches, with most of the Western leaders refusing to face the reality of this war. It was a “whistling in the dark” as one key TV ZDF journalist put it. The host of the event and main leader of the transatlantic Alliance, President Joe Biden was trying hard to give a coherent speech that was otherwise filled with “martial rhetoric”. The final declaration of the NATO summit reveals that Ukraine will not get membership in NATO in the foreseeable future. The leaders adopted a “formula” that vaguely states that at some point in the future Ukraine may integrate into the structures of the West- (EU and NATO. Blinken called it Ukraine’s “irreversible” way into NATO). Complementary to this were more weapon delivery promises from the US and NATO (F-16 for Ukraine, long range Tomahawks missiles to be bought and stationed in Germany) in the coming years. Noteworthy is also that a key focus in the final declaration was to address the “adversarial relationship” between the US and China, that was criticized for its actions in the Asia- Pacific region as well for its Russia support in the Ukraine war. Yet, the well staged summit, despite its aggressive language could barely cover up the differences that are looming under the surface of NATO.
The only real counterpoint to this “NATO-Musical” (as the top headline of the FAZ put it on 11.07.24) in Washington was the diplomatic effort that was initiated by Hungarian PM Victor Orban, who on first of July became chairman of the rotating EU Council. His personal diplomatic mission starting on the first day in office, led him firstly to Kiev and a direct talk with President Zelenskyy, which was followed by his trip to Moscow, where he met President Putin and gave a common press conference with him. His diplomacy travel ended in Beijing, where Orban met President Xi Jinping. The purpose of these 3 visits was to find out from each side what would be the chances that could bring about “peace “in the Ukraine war, since “Europe and the world need peace.” From Beijing Orban went directly to the NATO meeting in Washington.
Press conference with Putin
During a common press conference July 5th Vladimir Putin qualified the discussion with Orban as a “truly useful and sincere conversation on topical issues of bilateral cooperation and also, naturally, on the acute issues on the international agenda, including development around Ukraine.” Aside underlining the very useful bilateral cooperation in the energy sector, the work on the Paks Nuclear Power Plant, the cooperation in the field of medicine and pharmaceutical industry, the Russian president emphasized that they also discussed about Orbans recent meeting in Kiev “where he advanced a number proposals, among them a call for a ceasefire to create conditions for peace negotiation with Moscow. While Moscow continues to be open for discussion on a political and diplomatic settlement, the opposite side only makes clear its reluctance to resolve the issue in this manner”, Putin stated. He added that “in light of what we heard today from Mr Prime Minister Kiev is still not ready to abandon the idea of waging war until final victory.”
Orban in turn underlined at the press conference that “this meeting is special because it is being held at the time of war, when Europe badly needs peace. Peace is what Europe needs most of all. We see the struggle for peace as the main task for the next six months of our European Council presidency (…) I wanted to hear President Putin’s opinion about three proposals: What does he think about the current Peace initiatives? What does he think about cease fire and peace talks and in what succession can they be carried out. And the third thing that interested me was Mr President’s vision of Europe after the war. I am thankful to Mr President for this open and honest conversation”.
EU bureaucrats in a hysterical rage fit
The predictable reaction from the top echelons of the EU bureaucracy – including von der Leyen, Borrell, Charles Michel and NATO- officials- was an outburst of rage along the line that Orban had not received the “mandate” from the EU (bureaucrats) to visit these places and discuss about “peace”, which Orban has never said. Informed observers from the US (for example geopolitical analyst and Russian expert Prof. Gilbert Doctorow), noted in an interview with the channel “Dialogue works”, that “Orban had seized the chance to do what is necessary- namely campaign for the end of the war and for peace”, while the entire EU and NATO in line with the US want the war to go on (!)” Orban wants to give a “voice of resistance” to the clique that is around von der Leyen, who wants to shut up everybody in the EU.” Doctorow furthermore underlined that Russia which for years has talked about the need of a “new security architecture in Europe” has been the single biggest obstacle to the American unipolar world. He stressed that what Russia did at the recent SCO summit in Astana -Kasachstan (July 4rth/5th), discussing a “new security and development strategy for Eurasia” in line with the remarkable speech that was given by President Putin in front of the Russian Foreign Ministry (14th June), was “outstanding” and that Russia as well as China are increasingly viewed as the “winners” by the countries from the Global South as well as by some people in Europe.
One should add the reaction by former chairman of the NATO military commission, General a.D. Harald Kujat, who in the past also chaired the NATO -Russia as well as Ukraine- NATO Council. In an interview with the Austrian TV “FPÖ press” a few days ago, Kujat praised Orban’s tremendous courage engaging as the only western leader in a peace effort. He pointed to the fact that the US which fought the Ukraine war so as to weaken Russia, which it perceives as key ally of China, is now more and more focusing on China as the US main adversary. He stressed that the US is withdrawing from the conflict in Europe and is transferring the responsibility in financial and material terms onto Europe. He very much praised Orbans peace efforts in contrast to the Europeans that have “no strategy” what should happen in the future in respect to Ukraine. He pointed to the tragedy that the Ukraine is facing, since people “let the Ukraine fight” and watch with no empathy how the “Ukrainian people is perishing.” Therefore, the admirable and courageous initiative of Orban, despite criticism deserves attention. One should always keep in mind, Kujat said, that “the EU Commission president is an employee (!) of the European Council”. He further added that there will be no “military solution” on the battlefield, as also former Merkel military advisor and Brigadier General Erich Vad reiterated a few days ago. The entire situation is a catastrophic defeat! At the same time, he warned of President Zelenskyy who despite the fact that since March 22nd is constitutionally no longer the “legitimate” Ukrainian president, is dangerously trying to lure Europe and NATO into a military confrontation with Russia which would have catastrophic consequences.
Similarly former British diplomat Alistair Crooke in an interview with the US channel “Judging Freedom” emphasized that “Orban was absolutely right” when he had stated that the “EU bureaucrats want war with Russia” and that he considers him a very courageous man. He emphasized that right now “preparations for war are fully going on from the side of NATO and the US, on a monetary and military material level.” That the elites in Brussels – in light of the disastrous Trump/ Biden debate, are in a “terrified state of mind and aside the fact that France after its parliamentary elections is in shambles, it would be quite possible that the EU parliament at the end may not endorse the proposed EU candidates for their jobs.”
Putin’s vigorous call for a “Eurasian security architecture”
At a meeting with Foreign Ministry senior officials, that was held June 14th, President Putin at the eve of the Bürgenstock (“peace summit” in Switzerland that ended without result, because Russia was not invited), gave a remarkable speech, in which for the first time he outlined in detail the contours of a future “Eurasian Security Architecture “ that not only makes Russia independent from the pressures of the Western NATO alliance, but that is an adequate response to respond to the current challenges. He stressed at the beginning of his speech that in light of the world’s rapid change “more countries are striving to strengthen their sovreignity, self- sufficiency and national and cultural identity. The countries of the Global South and East are gaining prominence and the role of Africa and Latin America is growing…The pace of transformation in Eurasia where many significant projects are underway, has also accelerated significantly.”
According to Putin a vision for the future aligns with the aspiration of the vast majority of countries. In light of Russia preparing for the BRICS summit in Kasan (October) he stated that he believes “that the potential BRICS will allow to be one of the core regulatory institutions of the multipolar world order…”
Looking back to the origins that led to the war in Ukraine, Putin shortly reminded what had happened at the end of the 20th century with the end of the Cold War. Western powers led by the US, as he put it, believed they had won the Cold War and had the right to determine how the world should be organized. “The practical manifestation of this outlook was the project of unlimited expansion of the North Atlantic bloc in space and time, despite the existence of alternative ideas for ensuring security in Europe.” He referred to Russia’s December 22nd 2021 “Security Memorandum” that was sent to the US and NATO addressing the idea of a “European security treaty”, which however didn’t not get picked up by anybody and could have avoided a war. He stressed that while we approach a dangerous period with Russia having thousands of nuclear warheads, the West, particularly the US, is “gripped by its belief in invincibility and exceptionalism”.
“It is evident that the entire system of Euro- Atlantic security is crumbling before our eyes. At present it is practically non- existent and needs to be rebuilt. To achieve this, we must collaborate with interested countries, of which there are many, to develop our own strategies for ensuring security in Eurasia and then present them for broader international deliberation. The Russian president outlined his “visions for equal and indivisible security, mutually beneficial and equitable cooperation, and development on the Eurasian continent in the foreseeable future,” that would be based on the following principles:
- “It is important to establish dialogue with all potential participants in this future security system (one should address the necessary issue with countries that are open to constructive interaction with Russia).” He stressed that he had discussed this vision during his visit in China with President Xi (May 2024) and that Russia’s proposal is not contradicting but complements and aligns with basic principles of the “Chinese global security initiative.”
- “It is crucial to recognize that the future security architecture should be open to all Eurasian countries that wish to participate in its creation. It includes European and NATO countries as well. We share the same continent and we must live and work together regardless of the circumstance…Geography cannot be changed.”
President Putin added that the main threat for the EU is not the allegation that Russia will attack Europe, but the “main threat to Europeans is their critical and increasing dependence on the US in military, technological, ideological and information aspects. Europe is being marginalized in global economic development, plunged into chaos of challenges such as migration, and losing international agency and cultural identity” (…) America forces them to act on behalf of American interests and buy weapons.”
- A crucial part of the Eurasian security and development system should definitely be the issues of the economy, social well- being, integration and mutually beneficial cooperation as well as address such common problems as overcoming poverty, inequality, the climate, the environment and developing mechanisms to respond to the threats of pandemics and crises in the global economic.”
While the US is “siphoning off the juice from European economies” which are teetering on the brink of recession, according to Putin, they are stealing Russian assets which allows them to destroy their own system which they created and which allowed them to consume more than they earn and attracted money from all over the world through debts and liabilities. There is already outflow of capital from some banks and wealth funds and growing distrust in international financial system based on western reserve currencies.
“I believe that we need to seriously intensify the formation of effective and safe bilateral and multilateral foreign economic mechanisms as alternatives to those controlled by the West. This includes the settlements in national currencies, the creation of independent payment systems and the building of value chains that bypass the channels blocked or compromised by the West. Naturally it is necessary to continue efforts to develop international transport corridors in Eurasia, the continent with Russia as its natural geographical core.”
In terms of his view on peace negotiations Putin stated at the end of his speech, that “its impossible to reach a peaceful solution to the Ukraine crisis and to overall European security without Russia’s participation, without an honest and responsible dialogue with us. As conditions for this he underlined: “The Ukrainian troops must be completely withdrawn from the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republic and Kherson and Zaporoshye regions within their administrative borders at the time of their being part of Ukraine. (…) As soon as Kiev declares that it is ready to make this decision and begins a real withdrawal of troops from these regions, and also officially notifies that it abandons its plans to join NATO, our side will follow an order to cease fire and the start of negotiations will be issued by us at that very moment.”