By E. Hellenbroich Wiesbaden,10.11.24
On November 6th , a few hours after the results of the US presidential elections had been made known in the world, declaring Donald Trump as the clear winner of the elections, which he won in a land slide victory, things began to precipitously develop in Berlin, leading to the break-up of the Ampel, the three-party coalition (SPD, FDP, Greenies).
If we follow the events chronologically: it was German Chancellor Olaf Scholz who after a meeting with his cabinet, which centered on discussing the budgetary crisis, that led to clashes with his finance Minister from the FDP, Christian Lindner,- Scholz called a press-conference – after having consulted with German President Steinmeier, in the evening of Nov 6th , where he announced that he had dismissed Finance Minister Christian Linder from the FDP. He accused him of being “disloyal” and “egoistic.” Lindner in turn had suggested to solve the budget crisis by implementing further draconian austerity measures, reducing overall social costs while giving incentives to industry. At the same time, he adamantly opposed to activate the special constitutional clause Art 115 that allows in emergency situations the deactivation of the debt barrier, in order to pave the way for financing special projects.
Scholz during his evening press conference stated, that he had dismissed the finance minister, in order to “keep away chaos from our county and give the government the power to take the necessary financial decisions for our country.” He underlined that he has had many clashes with Lindner and that it was clear that a larger financing space was needed for solving the crisis. Among the key principles which Scholz outlined were: 1.the need to ensure affordable energy costs; 2. a package of support for the automobile industry and securing of work places in the automobile sector and its supply industry; 3. investment premiums so as to improve the situation of industry; 4. support for Ukraine, that is facing a very difficult winter. After the elections in the US (sic), the signal should be given to the Ukraine that they can “rely on us”.
No matter what the formulations were on the part of Lindner or Scholz, according to my opinion, nobody is telling the full truth. The reason for this is that all parties including the CDU /CSU, – with the exception of the BSW and AFD – are strongly committed to support financially and militarily the continuation of the murderous Ukraine war, while categorically rejecting any effort to search for diplomatic solutions. All those parties except the Sahra Wagenknecht’s pro peace party BSW – were driven by the wishful desire that Kamala Harris would win and that things would continue as usual. It is also a fact that many in the SPD, but particularly in the FDP, the notorious MEP and chairman of the EP [European Parliament Subcommittee on Security and Defense] Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, but also Lindner himself have argued in favor of sending the far-reaching German missile “Taurus” to Ukraine in order to strike deep into Russia, an item which Scholz correctly had adamantly opposed, since it would lead to a dangerous escalation of the war. Also, on the side of the CDU/ CSU there have been war hawks like Roderich Kiesewetter, but also Friedrich Merz himself who repeatedly called for sending “Taurus” missiles. The true strategic risk is that Germany – like it happened in the previous two world wars – is led by “blind minded” people within the party system.
The chancellor’s press conference November 6th
If we look more closely at the Scholz speech during the November 6th press conference, there was one recurring theme: “We will do for Ukraine whatever it takes!”, was his recurring line.
He stated that „it is clear that Germany will have to live up to its responsibility. Now more than ever, we in Europe must stick together and continue to invest in our own security and strength. The situation is serious. There is a war in Europe. Tensions are rising in the Middle East.(….)
„At the same time, our economy is stagnating. Weak world trade is a problem for companies. They have to bear the costs of energy prices, which have risen due to Russia’s war of aggression, and the costs of modernizing our economy. My talks with the business community show that our companies need support, and they need it now (….). It is my duty as Chancellor to push for pragmatic solutions for the good of the whole country. (….) All too often, Federal Minister Lindner has blocked laws for the wrong reasons. All too often, he has engaged in small-minded party-political tactics. All too often, he has broken my trust. He even unilaterally withdrew an agreement on the budget after we had already agreed on it in long negotiations. There is no basis of trust for further cooperation. Serious government work is not possible that way (…) Christian Lindner is concerned about his own supporters, he is concerned about the short-term survival of his own party. On a day like today, following such an important event as the US elections, such egotism is completely incomprehensible.”
He returned to the subject which he repeated several times during his press conference:
„Politics begins with an examination of reality, and the reality for Germany is that Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has profoundly changed the security situation for years to come. We have to invest considerably more in our defense and in the Bundeswehr, especially now, after the election result in the US. 1.2 million Ukrainians have found shelter from Russian bombing terror in our country. That remains the case. We are supporting the Ukrainians in their fight with nearly 30 billion euros. We are also doing this because it serves our own security interests. A Russian victory would cost us much more in many ways. Supporting Ukraine is and remains important. (…) I also want to make it very clear that I am not prepared to finance our support for Ukraine and investments in our defense at the expense of social cohesion, at the expense of pensions, health or care. We need both security and cohesion. That is why I will not ask the public to choose between investing enough in our security or investing in good jobs, in a modern economy and in a functioning infrastructure. This either/or approach is toxic. Pitting security against cohesion, supporting Ukraine against investing in Germany’s future – playing these opposing sides off against each other is wrong and dangerous. It plays into the hands of the enemies of our democracy.
(…..) “There are solutions for a budget that simultaneously strengthens internal, external and social security. I have proposed such a solution. Article 115 of the Basic Law explicitly provides for a decision to exceed the budget in an exceptional emergency situation, as the coalition agreed at the end of last year for precisely this case. The Russian war of aggression, which has now been raging for three years, and all its consequences, constitute such an emergency situation. When an emergency situation arises, however, the federal government not only has the right to act. It is obliged to act.
„Dear fellow citizens, as Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, I will continue to devote all my energies to leading our country through these difficult times. I am confident that, by taking the right decisions, we will emerge from this crisis stronger than before(….)
„What happens next? Federal Minister Lindner will be dismissed by the Federal President. I am in agreement with Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck: Germany needs clarity quickly about the further political course. The regular date for the Bundestag election in the fall of next year is still a long way off. In the remaining weeks of the Bundestag session before Christmas, we will put all the bills that cannot be postponed to the vote.(….)„In the first Bundestag session week of the new year, I will then ask for a vote of confidence so that the Bundestag can vote on it on January 15. This will allow the members of the Bundestag to decide whether to pave the way for early elections. These elections could then take place by the end of March at the latest, in compliance with the deadlines set by the Basic Law.”
There were other statements made by the German Finance Minister Lindner who supposedly was defending a stronger austerity policy, involving the dumping of social costs, while trying to do more investments into key industrial sectors. Opposition leader Merz has in the meantime already flatly rejected the proposals by Scholz and demanded immediate early elections.
In other words, Germany is facing a huge dilemma: Neither Scholz, nor Lindner nor Friedrich Merz, nor the Greenies are ready to constructively solve the situation for the benefit of the German people. They are all “stuck to the militarisation policy”, while the country is economically bleeding and economically ruined. The protagonists of the German drama are hiding the truth: The truth is the immense crisis in the German automobile sector, where massive lay- offs occur, as well as other industry sectors which are suffering from skyrocketing energy costs since the war began. With its war policy without energetic diplomatic efforts, which the government chose in line with the US/ NATO, the government has opted for a self-destructive course instead of committing itself for a grand project of reviving its industrial basis.
Learning the lessons from former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and Victor Orbán
During a podium discussion in Vienna Nov 2nd moderated by the Swiss “Weltwoche” chief editor Roger Koeppel between former SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and Hungarian PM Victor Orbán, Schoeder expressed deep respect for Victor Orbán who in these days- Nov 7th chaired and hosted the largest gathering of EU heads of States and non- EU states in Budapest (new European Political Community, 47 member states, proposed by Macron 2022 in response to the Russian aggression). During the podium discussion in Vienna Orbán supported Schroeder, qualifying him as a man who always wanted good relations with Russia. Both Orbán and Schoeder being often strongly criticized and facing hostile reactions given their pro- peace stance, draw their energy from a healthy family environment as well as supportive wife as is the case with Schroeders wife Kim.
Both were asked how it comes that so many people in Europe desire that the war in Ukraine comes to an end and what they personally thought when the war will end? Both referred to the fact that with Germany and France as central partners, like it was in respect to the Iraq war (2003), could be a way out. In respect to the Ukraine war Schroeder told the audience, how he in 2022 had been asked by Switzerland in behalf of the Ukraine to mediate with Putin, his good friend. And that he had met Putin and Erdogan to mediate with Kiev. The Istanbul agreements in March 2022 however were ruined by politicians such as former British PM Boris Johnson, who even encouraged Selensky to continue the war. Schroeder praised Orbán’s peace initiative during this summer, but added that in order to work, it would need German and French support. Orbán reiterated that given that we are a continent with a Christian culture we can’t tolerate that hundreds of thousand people are dying in this terrible war on both sides. We should at least try the effort. “I tried to go for a ceasefire and I tried to convince both Putin and Kiev that time worked against them. I somehow failed.” He expressed tremendous regret that Europe can’t hide the fact that it is on the side of this war in the Ukraine. “They are all programmed to win the war, they want to win over Russia and give everything to Ukraine. The Europeans don’t understand that the war goes against their own interests. They want to win against Russia, while the objective situation gets worse.”
“Militarily, the war cannot be won”, Orbán emphasized in line with Schroeder, ”especially if Europe decides to send soldiers to the front,” with Schroeder adding: “It would be the task of great powers like GB, France and Germany to support Orbán, also Spain and Italy. But as long as the initiative does not come from Germany, it will be difficult. The Americans are far away from all this. And the central question is whether the Europeans are capable, may be together with Brazil, China or the US to do something useful.” He also stated that he knows Putin personally quite well and that its stupid to send weapons to Ukraine and think that this could force Russia to negotiate: “One needs people that come into discussion with Putin.” Schroeder at the end spoke about the need to “take risks” irrespective of elections and results, if certain projects or reforms have to get pushed through (in reminiscence of his own Agenda 2000 policy). A good warning for those who just broke the Ampel coalition! So it’s time to listen to those statesmen.